Price Movement – Gold has bounced back above $4100 and silver above $60, as investors keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East and what they could mean for inflation and interest rates. If the Fed leans toward a more dovish stance, both metals are likely to push higher. But if it signals more rate hikes are needed, gold and silver could come under renewed pressure

Geopolitical Tensions – Reports suggest the US and Iran will continue peace talks, even after a recent flare-up disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and stirred fresh inflation worries. US forces struck targets in Iran over two days in response to attacks on vessels in Hormuz, prompting Iran to retaliate with strikes on US bases across the region.

Macro-Economic Signals – According to minutes released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the central bank expects inflation to rise while the labour market continues to show signs of weakness. This combination opens the door to a possible rate cut later this year. Lower rates typically work in favour of precious metals

Technical Triggers   

Gold prices could move either way depending on how the US-Iran situation plays out. If gold holds above $4,090 (~ ₹1,44,000), it could head higher toward $4,160 (~ ₹1,47,000). But if it slips below $4,040 (~ ₹1,43,000), the pullback could extend further toward $3,950 (~ ₹1,41,000).

Silver is currently stuck in a no-trade zone. If it holds above $63 (~ ₹2,30,000), it could push higher toward $70–71 (~ ₹2,51,000–2,55,000). But a drop below $58 (~ ₹2,20,000) could drag it down toward $55 (~ ₹2,10,000) and even $50 (~ ₹2,00,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont