Demand and Supply – Gold and silver are carrying forward last week’s uptrend, helped by fewer bets on the Federal Reserve tightening policy next month, as investors wait for key U.S. inflation data that could reshape expectations around the Fed’s path.

Geopolitical Tensions – The U.S. and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels reported separate shipping attacks on Tuesday, while hopes of ending the Iran war seemed to fade further, as Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz would stay shut unless Washington agrees to its terms.

Macro-Economic Signals – As investors wait for U.S. inflation data for clues on the Fed’s policy direction, a stronger reading could support a tighter stance and add more pressure on gold, while a softer number could bring some relief. Traders are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a hike in September, down from 60% before the jobs report.

Technical Triggers    

Gold’s break above $4200 (~₹1,46,000) has opened the way toward $4,500 (~₹1,56,000). Gold is holding support at its uptrend line through August. Near-term support sits at $4350 (~₹153,500).

Silver’s move past $63 (~₹2,30,000) has opened the path toward $70-71 (~₹2,50,000-2,55,000).

r.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont