Price movement– Gold is on track for a modest weekly loss as war-driven inflation pressures in the US have reinforced expectations of a prolonged high-rate environment. Silver slipped below $82, extending declines for a second consecutive session as broad-based weakness across the metals complex deepened amid mounting US inflation concerns and renewed rate hike speculation.

Domestic Developments – India has tightened gold import regulations under the Advance Authorisation scheme, introducing a 100 kg cap where no such limit previously existed. The policy shift accompanies a doubling of basic customs duty to 10%, a fivefold increase in AIDC to 5%, bringing effective import duty to 15% and total levy including IGST to 18.45%. Future AA issuances are now conditional on at least 50% fulfilment of export obligations from prior authorisations.

Macro-economic Signals – US wholesale inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since 2022 in April, while consumer prices posted their sharpest monthly gain since 2023. The primary driver remains the ongoing Iran conflict and the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has materially disrupted global energy supply chains. Markets have fully unwound expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2025, with some positioning now reflecting the possibility of a rate hike by December

Technical Triggers   

Gold remains range-bound between $4,500 and $4,780, with no clear directional bias; a buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies approach is recommended.

Silver has pulled back after testing resistance at $90, with firm support at $80 expected to provide a base for the next rebound.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont