Price Movement – Optimism around a Middle East peace deal pulled inflation expectations lower, helping gold break out of a multi-week range above $4,200. Markets now price a 55% probability of a U.S. rate hike in September, down from 63% a week earlier.

Geopolitical Tensions – U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told reporters he expects the war with Iran to end soon and also noted that armed forces are facing shortages in supplies of certain weapons

Macro-Economic Signals – Whatever today’s NFP report ends up showing, $4,000 has held firm as a strong support level, and buyers appear to be waiting for dips to position for a much-needed move higher toward $4,600. The NFP data may create some short-term noise, but the underlying price action already tells the story, and gold appears ready to rally.

Technical Triggers    

Gold’s clean move above $4200 (~₹1,46,000) suggests a possible rally toward $4,500 (~₹1,55,000).

For silver, a firm break past $63 (~₹2,30,000) could open the way toward $70-71 (~₹2,50,000-2,55,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont