Price Movement – Gold and silver are on track for their sharpest weekly fall in more than four months. Rising oil prices have renewed fears that interest rates will stay higher for longer, and investors are holding back ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Geopolitical Tensions – Oil jumped about 4% to a five-month high on Thursday after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia raised fears of further disruption to energy supplies. Costlier energy makes it more likely the Fed will keep rates high for longer. That raises the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which pays no yield.

Macro-Economic Signals – Attention now shifts to the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting and next week’s PCE data. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge as it works towards its 2% target, so markets will be watching it closely.

Technical Triggers    

Short-term (10-15 days) – Gold has slipped below its key $4,000 (₹1,42,000) support, which leaves room for a further fall towards $3,950 (~₹1,40,000). Silver has also broken its $54.5 (~₹2,00,000) support and could ease towards the $50 (~₹1,80,000–1,85,000) zone.

Medium term (2-3 Months) – Both metals are trying to build a base, gold around $3,950–4,000 and silver around $50–55. These are strong support and accumulation zones. We expect prices to hold here and then rebound 10–15% over the coming weeks. For the uptrend to resume, gold needs to stay above $4,200 and silver above $62.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont