Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and silver hold their gains amid growing optimism that the US and Iran are moving toward a negotiated resolution to the ongoing conflict, easing concerns over inflation driven by an energy supply shock. Although weekend discussions failed to reach an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz blockade was implemented, US officials indicated that further negotiations are likely before the current two-week ceasefire period ends.

Geopolitical Developments U.S. President Donald Trump stated that talks may resume in Pakistan within the next two days after breaking down over the weekend. Pakistani and Iranian officials also signaled a willingness to restart negotiations, with key issues including transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program, and the status of international sanctions.

Macro-economic Signals – Markets have moderated expectations of a hawkish monetary policy stance, with the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious, data-dependent approach while assessing inflation risks. Recent data showed U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in March due to stable service costs; however, rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict continue to exert upward pressure on inflation.

Technical Triggers   

If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ ₹1,55,000) the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ ₹1,60,000).

As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ ₹2,44,000) yesterday, the next resistance would be $82 (~ ₹2,55,000) and $87 (~ ₹2,65,000) on continued strength.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont