It was one of those weeks that pulled bullion traders in two directions before Friday settled the argument for good. Gold spent the first four sessions grinding higher, brushing $4,700 an ounce for the first time since mid-May, before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech reset the mood entirely and dragged prices back down toward $4,450 by the close.

The rally that carried gold into Thursday had a fairly specific trigger: the US Treasury’s surprise move to double its long-term bond buyback programme to $4 billion a session, which revived old anxieties about dollar debasement and fiscal sustainability. Traders did what they usually do when Washington’s balance sheet looks shakier than usual — they bought metal, and short-covering added fuel to a break above $4,600 resistance. Then came Friday.

In his first major address since taking the Fed’s helm in May, Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone, saying inflation hasn’t meaningfully cooled and that the central bank still has “work to do” before it can be confident price pressures are easing — firmer language than markets had priced in. The reaction was immediate: CME FedWatch odds of a September rate hike jumped from roughly 35% to near 57%, the 2-year Treasury yield spiked 12 basis points, and the 10-year climbed to 4.73%. July’s PCE print, already hotter than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, suddenly looked a lot more relevant to the policy debate.

Geopolitics stayed in the background but never fully left the frame. The Strait of Hormuz situation kept simmering, with Iran and Oman edging toward an interim arrangement on shipping through the waterway, even as Tehran kept attaching conditions around sanctions relief and war reparations. Oil actually eased through the week as diplomatic signals softened — Brent slipped toward the high $80s — taking some pressure off inflation expectations and acting as one of the few counterweights to gold’s safe-haven bid.

On the demand side, the World Gold Council’s latest monitor showed global gold-backed ETFs adding $3 billion in July, snapping two straight months of outflows and lifting collective holdings to roughly 4,068 tonnes, with European and Asian-listed funds leading the charge while North America stayed a net seller. Central banks remain the steadier hand in this market: Poland, China, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan were all net buyers last quarter, and the WGC’s own reserve-manager survey found a record 45% of respondents planning further additions over the next year. Indian retail buyers largely sat on their hands through the week’s volatility, waiting for a clearer dip before stepping back in ahead of the festive season.

The calendar doesn’t slow down from here. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index lands Monday, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment data and the Dallas Fed Services Index through the week, building toward next Friday’s non-farm payrolls print. With the September FOMC meeting now squarely in focus after Warsh’s remarks, expect volatility to stay elevated across both COMEX and MCX in the days ahead.

Gold prices are expected to hold $4400 support, while $4650 is the significant resistance. Moreover, Silver is likely to hold $64 support with $71 as the resistance.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont