Price Movement – Gold slid to a three-week low on Wednesday, pressured by a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions that pushed oil prices higher and revived fears around inflation and rate hikes. With markets now bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data, investors have grown more cautious. Silver wasn’t spared either, tumbling nearly 4% to trade near $64 as traders weighed the growing odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike — a view reinforced by the recent jump in global bond yields and crude prices.

Geopolitical tensions – Tuesday marked one of the sharpest escalations in weeks, as the U.S. carried out a series of airstrikes against Iran, drawing swift retaliation from Tehran. The fallout was immediate: oil prices extended their rally for a third consecutive session, and U.S. Treasury yields pushed higher alongside them. This renewed bout of U.S.-Iran hostilities has added fresh urgency to inflation concerns — and with crude now more expensive, the path toward tighter monetary policy looks likely to firm up further, keeping a lid on any meaningful recovery in gold.

Macro-Economic Signals – Bond yields worldwide climbed as inflationary pressures built and rate-hike expectations solidified. In the U.S., Treasury yields reversed course entirely, erasing the dip that followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of an expanded buyback program.

Technical Triggers    

Gold’s sharp climb from $4,000 to $4,680 has since cooled, with prices retracing to the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $4,400–4,410. That zone should act as support for now — but a break below opens the door to further downside toward $4,315 and $4,235. On the flip side, a sustained move above $4,500 could set up a fresh rally toward $4,700 and eventually $4,900.

Silver has followed a similar arc, pulling back to around $66 after its run from $55 to $71. Holding above this level keeps the setup intact; a breakdown could send prices toward $63 and $61. If silver instead pushes and holds above $67, look for a renewed push toward $71 and $76.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont