Safe-Haven Dynamics – Silver surged over 6%, recovering from early-session weakness to reach its highest price in nearly two months, as investors tracked US-Iran nuclear negotiations. President Trump’s characterization of the Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support” has driven risk aversion among traders. Unlike gold, silver carries significant industrial demand exposure, making its safe-haven rally notable.

Geopolitical Developments – President Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal as “totally unacceptable,” escalating conflict risk, while weekend strikes in the Middle East undermined the fragile April ceasefire. With diplomacy stalled, the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, sustaining elevated oil prices and reinforcing inflation pressures.

Macro-economic Signals – Market expectations for two Fed rate cuts in 2025 have weakened considerably, with consensus now divided between one cut and no easing through 2026. Attention turns to Tuesday’s US CPI print and Trump’s planned meeting with President Xi Jinping, where the agenda spans Iran, Taiwan, AI governance, and nuclear proliferation.

Technical Triggers   

Gold maintains its bullish momentum, with the next resistance zone at $4,800–4,850 (~₹1,56,000).

Silver has reached the $85 (~₹2,80,000) target level. Prices are expected to consolidate at current levels before extending the move toward $90 (~₹2,95,000)

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont