Price Movement – Gold and silver kept sliding and are on track to close the month down about 6% and 8% respectively. Talk of higher interest rates is weighing on sentiment, and investors are waiting on US inflation data for hints about the Federal Reserve’s next move. CME’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of an October rate increase at 47%, and a December hike at 91%. The Fed has already raised rates by 25 basis points this month.

Geopolitical Tensions – Qatar says it hopes shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington can lead to a breakthrough. That hope survives even though US President Donald Trump has denied reports that he would ease sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds in return for nuclear concessions.

Macro-Economic Signals – The US PCE price index is due today, and it’s a real test for gold. The number could shift expectations for US monetary policy and steer Treasury yields and the dollar. A softer reading would likely help gold and open the way back to the $4,200-4,300 range. A hotter one could push yields and the dollar higher, put fresh pressure on gold and bring the $4,100 level into play.

Technical Triggers    

Spot gold has broken key support at $4250 (~ Rs 150,000). The next targets are $4100 (~ Rs 148,000) and $4000 (~ Rs 144,000), with resistance around $4300.

Spot silver has broken the neckline support of its head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, at $62.5 (~ Rs 230,000). The next targets are $60 (~ Rs 225,000) and $57 (~ Rs 220,000).

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont