Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold traded below $4,600 and Silver below $73, both near one-month lows, as stalled US-Iran negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened inflation concerns. Higher energy prices, a strengthening dollar, elevated inflation expectations, and a persistent higher-for-longer interest rate outlook have collectively tightened short-term conditions for precious metals.

Geopolitical Developments – President Trump confirmed that Iran has formally requested the US lift its naval blockade while conflict resolution talks remain ongoing. The closure has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply — a shock the IEA classified as the largest on record — directly tightening Middle East energy flows and amplifying inflationary pressure across markets

Macro-economic Signals – Markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood that major central banks will maintain or further raise interest rates, a scenario that structurally weakens the case for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. The BOJ held its policy rate steady earlier this week, while the US Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada are all scheduled to deliver their rate decisions in the coming days.

Technical Triggers  

Gold has broken important support of $4650 (~ Rs 151,000), next target is $4550 (~ Rs 147,500).

Silver is on the verge of breaking $73 (~ Rs 235,000), if prices sustain below this level, next target is $70 (~ Rs 225,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont